DAILY REVIEW 5 January 2016

Hi friends,
My browser is still very slow. I'm tweaking trying to get it back to normal speeds. In the meantime, owing to the very slow loading, I will only do analysis for one pair at the moment.
Regards
Trek Trader 

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (541pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (139pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<51weeks. The candle close suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (165pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>10days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Prices tanked on the first trading day of the year yesterday as prices attempted to go up and then fell as we expected after SM had taken enough weak short stops. Volume is still fairly thin at the moment. 

The Oanda order book shows majority of newly profitable short positions. 

Potential demand stacks:  1.0800-1.0789, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0677-1.0664

Potential supply stacks: N.A.

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0774-1.0752
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0835-1.0855, 1.0938-1.0950, 1.0990-1.1017, 1.1066-1.1076, 1.1151-1.1160 

With both German (Euro) and US data release later. SM is likely to to test yesterday's low 1.0779 or lower taking out the weak longs stops and inducing selling before retracing. Note that there are no demand levels to go long.

EU long levels: 1.0762-1.0740, 1.0700  

EU short levels: 1.0900-1.0923, 1.0950, 1.1060, 1.1105, 1.1208

Posted at 4.30 am EST