DAILY REVIEW 21 May 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above-average spread (745pips) bull closing very near the high on ultra high vol>42months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. However the monthly trend is still down. 

WEEK- The candle is a slightly below average (335pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a below average (89pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests buying commencement.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. ECB Bond purchases remain strong and at high pace, the implication of course is that this creates demand for the Euro. QE for the ECB is on course and will run its course. The FOMC statement released seems to imply that a June rate hike is unlikely but still not off the table. The potential hanging guillotine over the EU rise remains the possible launch of the FED rate hike.

The Oanda order book shows significant net newly trapped long volumes and earlier trapped short volumes.  
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1055-1.1040, 1.1005-1.0985, 1.0955-1.0948
Potential fresh supply: 1.1167-1.1180, 1.1191-1.1205, 1.1396-1.1407
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1296-1.1280, 1.1205-1.1185  other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1138-1.1165, 1.1193-1.1222

In the wake of the FOMC release, price is still in an inside day of yesterday's candle. SM is likely to induce shorts by retesting the pivot 1.1061 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1061, 1.1050-1.1040, 1.1020, 1.0978-1.0950

EU short levels: 1.1165, 1.1215, 1.1305, 1.1325, 1.1340-1.1350, 1.1365-1.1380, 1.1392-1.1400


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. 

MONTH - The candle is an above average spread (932pips) bull closing 1/5 off the high on high vol>2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
WEEK - The candle is an above average spread (421pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on high vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY - The candle is a below average spread (115pips) bull small body spinning top closing on very high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows both new significant trapped long volumes and earlier short trapped volumes. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5520-1.5500, 1.5470-1.5455, 1.5440-1.5415, 

Potential supply stacks: 1.5590-1.5600, 1.5688-1.5705, 1.5747-1.5760, 1.5785-1.5805, 1.5840-1.5855, 1.5892-1.5905 

Potential long (trapped) stops: 1.5525-1.5451, 1.5440-1.5415, 1.5400-1.5380
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5577-1.5600, 1.5662-1.5678, 1.5690-1.5705, 1.5840-1.5855, 1.5915-1.5930, 1.5947-1.5960  no significant higher volumes

Price is still pretty much inside yesterday's candle after the FOMC minutes release. SM is likely to test Asia low 1.5524 or lower before reversing to resume the upward movement.

GU long levels: 1.5525, 1.5500-1.5480, 1.5459, 1.5445-1.5430, 1.5371-1.5361, 1.5305-1.5290,  1.5275-1.5265 

GU short levels: 1.5567, 1.5585, 1.5670, 1.5700, 1.5810, 1.5830-1.5845, 1.5880-1.5890, 1.5900-1.5910, 1.5922-1.5935, 1.5957-1.5970, 1.5990, 1.6000, 1.6010-1.6026 

Posted at 02.59 am EST