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EU Analysis:
EU: Weekly- The candle is an an above average spread (214pips) bear closing just off the low on ultrahigh vol>60weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Daily- The candle is a very large spread (174pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2500 Daily/Weekly: 1.2034 Supply: short-term: 1.2600, 1.2615, 1.2634, 1.2661,1.2680,1.2698, 1.2715, 1.2738 (monthly ema200), 1.2790, 1.2800, 1.2820, 1.2840. Background: Fundamentals point toward more downward pressure with negative yields on German bonds, more QE expected by ECB, upcoming anticipated rate hike by the US FED. After the significant break through the pivots last week without much pause, we can expect SM to fade weak shorts and build more short positions before a further downward push. Price stopped at the 1.2500 key level on Friday and has not retested the level yet. SM is likely to continue to fade weak shorts to the 1.2600 level or higher before reversing back down.
EU long levels: 1.2500, 1.2034
GU Analysis:
GU: Monthly- The candle is a large spread (335pips) bear closing near the low on very high vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Day- The candle is a very large spread (206pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but also a reduction of selling pressure as price gets toward the 1.5853 pivot. Demand: Weekly/Daily: 1.5900, 1.5850 Supply: Short term: 1.6050, 1.6065, 1.6150, 1.6185, 1.6200, 1.6224 The steep movement last Friday smacks of a SM fade downward in line with the USD strength following the good NFP release. Price is reaching the 1.5853 pivot where we can expect to see a test for demand. SM is likely to test the current low of 1.5950 or lower before reversing back up.
GU long levels: 1.6161, 1.6050, 1.5870
GU short levels: 1.6523, 1.6585, 1.6600, 1.6622
Posted at 02.43 am EST
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