DAILY REVIEW 22 June 2016
  
Hi folks, my PC has been a bit wonky lately, connectivity issues after critical upgrades to WIndows 10. Anyway, in the next day or so leading to the Brexit referandum, expect extreme volatility and exercise caution in your trade management, I saw 50 pips profit in a short GU position just disappear like "now you see me now you don't". It's a good thing my trade manager collected 30 pips for me as it trailed price. Not a bad thing with the volatility now in the market. 

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bull spring closing on high vol>6 days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (110pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<6days. The candle close suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The 5-10 year inflation expectation was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.3%, even more reason to expect that the FED should hold off any further rate hikes for the time being. Overall USD strength/weakness now in the wake of the pro-Brexit poll is likely to be transient until significant US data show clear improvement.

Oanda order book:  The volumes have significantly more trapped shorts in play.  

Trapped shorts below 1.1260 are in play. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1315 level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1240, 1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1300-1.1315, 1.1345, 1.1380, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (374pips) bull spring closing on ultrahigh vol>past historical buying activity. The candle close and volume suggests buying.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (167pips) bear upthrust closing on high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: The trapped shorts are more. 

Trapped shorts are now in play. SM is likely to fade weak shorts yesterday's high 1.4783 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: look for possible setups to session lows etc but keep stops tight

GU short levels: 1.4775, 1.4800-1.4820, 1.4930 

Posted at 07.19 am EST