DAILY REVIEW 26 November 2015

Hi friends,

I wish you all a HAPPY THANKSGIVING today! The market will be thin and it is better to stay clear. As such I won't be doing analysis today.

Cheers
Trek Trader

Posted 5.15 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 25 November 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (598pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<12months. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (146pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a small spread (53pips) bull closing 2/3 off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggest more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Euro has remained under pressure with a US rate rise still on the table for December. Post NDP, price has gone below the previous 1.0800 potential demand level and headed to retest the April pivot 1.0518

The Oanda order book shows even more freshly trapped short position volumes than yesterday. 

Potential demand stacks:  no significant stacks

Potential supply stacks: 1.0877-1.0890

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.0576-1.0535, 1.0492-1.0476
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.0710-1.0715, 1.0726-1.0737, 1.0765-1.0777, 1.0830-1.0860

Good US data released keeps the US Dollar bulls running. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to 1.00572 level or lower before fading the weak shorts.   

EU long levels: 1.0580 

EU short levels: 1.0670, 1.0710, 1.0725-1.0731, 1.0791, 1.0807-1.0825, 1.0843-1.0855, 1.0863-1.0873, 1.0896 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below June's low 1.5169 and looks headed toward  the current monthly pivot 1.4564 as the next possible level of support/demand. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices.  

MONTH-  The candle is a below average (402pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (181pips) bear upthrust closing off the low on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests selling and more downside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (101pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>11days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows profitable short positions to around 1.5220 level and more new shorts trapped below the 1.5140 level. 

Potential demand stacks: Not significant
Potential supply stacks: Not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5052-1.5042, 1.5026-1.5017, 1.5000-1.4987

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5113-1.5138, 1.5153-1.5170, 1.5285-1.5295

SM is likely to fade weak shorts up to around 1.5114 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5025, 1.4900

GU short levels: 1.5135, 1.5154-1.5166, 1.5207-1.5220, 1.5290-1.5315, 1.5340, 1.5355-1.5375, 1.5415

Posted at 7.31 am EST