DAILY REVIEW 16 Jun 2015

Hi folks, I'm in Eurpope at the moment and will try my best to get the analysis out daily again. 

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size a wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (302pips) bull closing 1/3 of the high on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (105pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The continuing Euro-Greek saga, mixed US data and yes/no rate hike all make for a beautiful ranging market that appears much like an accumulation of positions prior to a potential reversal for the EURUSD. 

The Oanda order book shows significant net newly trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1155-1.1145, 1.1109-1.1098
Potential fresh supply: 1.1280-1.1290, 1.1295-1.1305, 1.1325-1.1335, 1.1345-1.1358, 1.1374-1.1385, 1.1397-1.1405
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.1222-1.1215, 1.1205-1.1198, 1.1190-1.1178, 1.1155-1.1144
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1296-1.1305, 1.1312-1.1320

SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.1252 or lower before reversing to test the 1.1370 level.

EU long levels: 1.1252-1.1245, 1.1220-1.1200, 1.1190

EU short levels: 1.1367-1.1386, 1.1450-1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK-  The candle is an above average spread (377pips) bull closing near the high on hig vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (126pips) bull pseudo hammer closing on low vol<14days. The candle close and volumes suggests more upside (the candle stick "type" itself is a bear trap meant to induce shorts.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant retail net long volumes in profit. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5481-1.5470, 1.5455-1.5445, 1.5405-1.5485, 1.5358-1.5339
Potential supply stacks: 1.5610-1.5622, 1.5692-1.5704, 1.5799-1.5811
Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5491-1.5473, 1.5462-1.5454,1.5407-1.5392, 1.5368-1.5350
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5609-1.5622, 1.5641-1.5660, 1.5690-1.5702  

SM is likely fade weak longs to 1.5555 or lower before reversing back to test 1.5700 and higher.

GU long levels: 1.5550-1.5540, 1.5520-1.5505, 1.5475, 1.5457, 1.5435, 1.5415, 1.5380, 1.5365, 

GU short levels: 1.5722-1.5735, 1.5775, 1.5814, 1.5827, 1.5870

Posted at 00.30 am GMT

DAILY REVIEW 5 Jun 2015

To my dear friends and readers, my apologies for the lack of updates. I've just reconnected with Wifi as I'm overseas. Blessings and good trades for all.

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (647pips) bear equal-bodied (same size a wicks) spinning top closing on very high vol<2weeks. This is absorption of selling. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

WEEK- The candle is a small spread (190pips) "reverse upthrust" closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a large spread (157pips) bear upthrust closing on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. ECB Bond purchases remain strong and at high pace, the implication of course is that this creates demand for the Euro. QE for the ECB is on course and will run its course. The FOMC statement released seems to imply that a June rate hike is unlikely but still not off the table. The potential hanging guillotine over the EU rise remains the possible launch of the FED rate hike. The Greeks threw another spanner in the works yesterday prior to the US NFP release later today. 

The Oanda order book shows significant net newly trapped short volumes and hardly any new long stops except at 1.1220-1.1205 and 1.1180-1.1155 levels. Net short stops are way above at 1.1450 and higher  
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1235-1.1220, 1.1207-1.1195, 1.1157-1.1140, 1.1108-1.1095, 1.1005-1.0095
Potential fresh supply: 1.1315-1.1335, 1.1350-1.1390, 1.1400-1.1410, 1.1450-1.1460, 1.1490-1.1505
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0815-1.0786, 1.0772-1.0760
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1182-1.1152, 1.1110-1.1090

SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.1220 or lower before reversing to test the 1.1450 level.

EU long levels: 1.1220-1.1200, 1.1280-1.1155

EU short levels: 1.1450-1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. 

MONTH-  The candle is an above average spread (725pips) bear upthrust closing on very high vol>3months.  The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK-  The candle is a below average spread (271pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a large spread (137pips) bull "pseudo upthrust" closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows significant net trapped short volumes and earlier long trapped volumes. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5300-1.5290, 1.5252-1.5235, 1.5201-1.5190, 1.5107-1.5085 

Potential supply stacks: 1.5500-1.5510, 1.5600-1.5610, 1.5692-1.5704, 1.5799-1.5811

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5302-1.5285, 1.5272-1.5254,1.5201-1.5170, 1.5085-1.5070
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5458-1.5475, 1.5499-1.5522, 1.5582-1.5608, 1.5688-1.5702  no significant higher volumes

SM is likely fade weak longs to 1.5285 or lower before reversing back to test 1.5390 and higher.

GU long levels: 1.5300-1.5290, 1.5250-1.5230, 1.5170-1.5160, 1.5082-1.5068

GU short levels: 1.5390-1.5400, 1.5457-1.5470, 1.5501-1.5515, 1.5545-1.5555, 1.5695-1.5705

Posted at 06.02 am EST