Posts
EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (81pips) bear reverse upthrust (in no man’s land) on very very high vol>36days. The combination of the candle close and volume suggests that buying or possible Reaccumulation has commenced. Largely unchanged Levels of interest: Current H1 swing high 1.3738 Short-term demand : 1.3540, 1.3513, 1.3491, 1.3450 Short-term supply: 1.3755 – 1.3797 (gap) H4 supply 1.3816 Current Daily: 1.3866 – 1.3892 (during stop hunt holiday period so I won’t put too much weight to this unless there is a clear change in sentiment) Daily Supply: 1.4150, 1.4170, 1.4225, 1.4242 Short term demand: 1.3598 – 1.3610, 1.3575, 1.3535 – 1.3550 The 1.3540 level also has confluence and “support” with the daily trendline. The Asian range is 1.3643 – 1.3664 SM has cleared out supply to the upside and is likely to maintain selling pressure fading weak longs to test the 1.3600 level or lower before reversing to test Friday’s high and breaking higher. EU is in a technical uptrend but a H1 close below 1.3500 may mean more downside but is unlikely. A possible and likely scenario is for them to test for supply before reversing upwards unencumbered.
EU long levels: 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3545, 1.3500 EU short levels: 1.3738, 1.3755, 1.3810 – 1.3820, 1.3866, 1.3892
GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (81pips) bear narrow-body spinning top closing on high vol>2days. The candle close suggests buying and volume suggests no selling pressure.
Levels of interest: Short-term supply level 1.6620 – 1.6636 (confluence: Fib 78.6% @ 1.6626), 1.6650 – 1.6667 (Fib88.6% confluence @ 1.6645) TR 1.6473 – 1.6529 Short term demand 1.6440 – 1.6450 (confluence Fib 61.8% @ 1.6445) Demand: 1.6395 – 1.6418 (confluence H4 ema200 @ 1.6429)
The Asian range is 1.6544 – 1.6566. Overview: SM basically cleared all the weak shorts from last Friday on Mon-Tue, then went into a restock of shorts orders between Tue-Wed and now looks like re-positioning on mixed UK news for a test of Moday’s low 1.6473 or lower before reversing upward. Generally supply has been removed from above and it will be a clear run up when they make their move. Note that GU is still in a technical uptrend and has the tendancy to spike to a lower demand level before a super quick markup back to the highs.
GU long levels: 1.6474, 1.6415, 1.6395, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6280 GU short levels: 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
Posted at 4.59 am EST
