DAILY REVIEW 22 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (37pips) bear hammer closing on high vol<34ays. The daily candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. The Asian range is 1.3661 – 1.3680 TR is unchanged at 1.3650 – 1.3703 with TRL 1.3650 – 1.3677 and TRU 1.3677 – 1.3703 Trader platform’s open positions show that the trading crowd has increased net short positions. The overdue release of the NFP due today will likely give SM the basis to take stops both ways. SM probable move would be to create buying pressure to fade weak shorts pre-NFP and induce breakout long traders before reversing downwards to fade them and depending on the level at which they were faded, reverse maybe about 50-75 pips lower to go back upward. If SM responds on the news with a straight push up all the way to test 1.3775 – 1.3791 we may have a possible reversal move down from supply instead.
EU long levels 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3585 EU short levels: 1.3715, 1.3775, 1.3800
GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (48pips) bear closing off the low on vol<4days.The candle close and volume suggests that there is no selling interest and the daily bearish volume divergence since Friday has been playing out. The Asian range is 1.6114 – 1.6146 There is no clear TR in the shorter TF at the moment and I’m using a rough guide of 1.6050 (Fib 50%) – 1.6146 (Asia High). Again, with the NFP news due, SM likely move will be to create buying pressure past Asia high to fade the weak shorts before they reverse to pick up long orders as the push up was significant and they will want to take out weak longs before any further move up in order to reload inventory.
GU long levels: 1.6100, 1.6055, 1.6000, 1.5990 GU short levels 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6223, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380
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Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Monday, 21 October 2013
DAILY REVIEW 21 Oct 2013
Review is late out owing to some problems with my PC, still not completely solved yet but here it is.
EU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (231pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>1week with weekly bearish volume divergence. Price closed at 1.3684, smack at the top of the weekly demand level where the swing high is 1.3710 and closing above the previous week close and open of 1.3638 and 1.3649 respectively. The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bull spinning top closing on high vol<3days. The daily candle is no demand at a supply level and with bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests downside. However, the weekly candle close does suggest more upside. The Asian range is 1.3670 – 1.3687 TR is 1.3650 – 1.3703 subdivided TRL 1.3650 – 1.3677 and TRU 1.3677 – 1.3703 Technicals: Weekly 78.6%Fib @ 1.3775, confluence High of week 13 Nov 2011 @ 1.3791 and Week open 1.3776 Possible supply at retest of Breakout level 1.3830 – 1.3866, next supply at 1.4177 Trader platform’s open positions show that the trading crowd has increased net short positions. As there is already bearish volume divergence on both the daily and weekly, the context has to be a likely retracement rather than a reversal. However, SM being what they are will be unlikely to give current shorts a free ride down. A probable SM move would be to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce breakout short traders, possibly to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to fade the weak shorts and induce breakout long traders to perhaps 1.3715 level and reverse to create selling pressure for the real retracement to the 1.3600 key level and reversing again for the push upward. If SM does a straight push up all the way to test 1.3775 – 1.3791 without actually retracing below the current TRL 1.3650, we may have a reversal move instead.
EU long levels 1.3655, 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3585 EU short levels: 1.3715, 1.3775, 1.3800
GU: Week – the candle is a normal spread (331pips) bull closing off the highs on vol>1week. The Daily candle is a small spread (82pips) doji closing on vol<3days. This is a no demand candle with daily bearish volume divergence. The Asian range is 1.6151 – 1.6177 The TR is 1.6135 – 1.6223 with TRL 1.6135 – 1.6177 and TRU 1.6177 – 1.6223. Daily supply levels: 1.6248 – 1.6255, 1.6305 – 1.6330, 1.6350, 1.6360 – 1.6380 Like the EU, the trading crowd has also increased the net=short positions. SM likely move will be to create buying pressure past Asia high to fade the weak shorts but may not go all the way to 1.6223 and reverse for a corrective reversal before any further move up in order to reload inventory and remove the weak longs.
GU long levels: 1.6135, 1.6107, 1.6085, 1.6055, 1.6000, 1.5990 GU short levels 1.6223, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380
Review is late out owing to some problems with my PC, still not completely solved yet but here it is.
EU: Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (231pips) bull closing just off the high on below average vol>1week with weekly bearish volume divergence. Price closed at 1.3684, smack at the top of the weekly demand level where the swing high is 1.3710 and closing above the previous week close and open of 1.3638 and 1.3649 respectively. The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bull spinning top closing on high vol<3days. The daily candle is no demand at a supply level and with bearish volume divergence. The close and volume suggests downside. However, the weekly candle close does suggest more upside. The Asian range is 1.3670 – 1.3687 TR is 1.3650 – 1.3703 subdivided TRL 1.3650 – 1.3677 and TRU 1.3677 – 1.3703 Technicals: Weekly 78.6%Fib @ 1.3775, confluence High of week 13 Nov 2011 @ 1.3791 and Week open 1.3776 Possible supply at retest of Breakout level 1.3830 – 1.3866, next supply at 1.4177 Trader platform’s open positions show that the trading crowd has increased net short positions. As there is already bearish volume divergence on both the daily and weekly, the context has to be a likely retracement rather than a reversal. However, SM being what they are will be unlikely to give current shorts a free ride down. A probable SM move would be to create selling pressure to fade weak longs and induce breakout short traders, possibly to Asia low or lower before reversing upwards to fade the weak shorts and induce breakout long traders to perhaps 1.3715 level and reverse to create selling pressure for the real retracement to the 1.3600 key level and reversing again for the push upward. If SM does a straight push up all the way to test 1.3775 – 1.3791 without actually retracing below the current TRL 1.3650, we may have a reversal move instead.
EU long levels 1.3655, 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3585 EU short levels: 1.3715, 1.3775, 1.3800
GU: Week – the candle is a normal spread (331pips) bull closing off the highs on vol>1week. The Daily candle is a small spread (82pips) doji closing on vol<3days. This is a no demand candle with daily bearish volume divergence. The Asian range is 1.6151 – 1.6177 The TR is 1.6135 – 1.6223 with TRL 1.6135 – 1.6177 and TRU 1.6177 – 1.6223. Daily supply levels: 1.6248 – 1.6255, 1.6305 – 1.6330, 1.6350, 1.6360 – 1.6380 Like the EU, the trading crowd has also increased the net=short positions. SM likely move will be to create buying pressure past Asia high to fade the weak shorts but may not go all the way to 1.6223 and reverse for a corrective reversal before any further move up in order to reload inventory and remove the weak longs.
GU long levels: 1.6135, 1.6107, 1.6085, 1.6055, 1.6000, 1.5990 GU short levels 1.6223, 1.6240, 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380
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