DAILY REVIEW 30 Sep 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (102pips) bear hammer closing on low volume <1day. The candle close and spread normally no selling pressure. The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but price is still within the Trading Range (TR) clearly seen on a H4 chart bounded by the retracement low 1.3461 (25 Sep) 23.6% Fib and the current high 1.3567. Broker platforms also indicated increase in their short positions.  A H1 break and close below this level will likely see prices push lower in which case I will look to short on the retest of the breakout. Conversely, a H1 break and close above the 1.3567 will also likely result in price going upward to the next supply level. Price opened with a gap down in the wake of the Italian crisis and has not been closed yet. The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to appear to close the gap, move above the gap to fade weak short gap traders then reverse downward to remove weak longs, then reverse again upward in a push to test last week’s high and higher. As I mentioned last week, a H1 close above/below the TR high/low will likely determined the direction of the larger move. 
EU long levels:   1.3470, 1.3460, 1.3382, 1.3348, 1.3330  EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3520, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: Weekly - the candle is a below average spread (191pips) bull closing just off the high on low volume <37 weeks. The close is just below last week’s high back at the weekly supply level. Technicals: 88.6Fib @ 1.6203 Daily supply 1.6165 – 1.6177, 1.6229 – 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6350 – 1.6380, 1.6353 (HVC),  H4 Fib Ext 161.8% @ 1.6290 The Daily candle is a normal spread (117pips) bull closing just off the high on below-average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Broker platforms continue to show traders increasing short positions. Asia range is now 1.6137 – 1.6180 which is holding well above last week’s high and well within range of the monthly supply levels at 1.6350- 1.6380. As SM has already made new highs and there is bearish volume divergence on H1/H4 , the likely SM play will be to reverse to create selling pressure, inducing more weak shorts and filling the small gap up created at market open and possibly lower before reversing to resume the upward move.  
GU long levels: 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025, 1.6009 - 1.6000 GU short levels:  1.6170 – 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6229, 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 27 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (59pips) bull closing off the low on low vol>1days. Broker platforms continue short positions still dominant but one broker states that “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week”. The candle close and volume suggests SM buying into the candle. As I write, the Asian range so far is 1.3473 – 1.3490 SM has created selling pressure early in Asia to test yesterday’s lows and as I write, is now reversing to test Asia high. The retracement low 1.3461 (25 Sep) on the current daily swing is also the 23.6% Fib and together with the current high 1.3567 form the Trading Range (TR) clearly seen on a H4 chart. A H1 break and close below this level will likely see prices push lower in which case I will look to short on the retest of the breakout. Conversely, a H1 break and close above the 1.3567 will also likely result in price going upward to the next supply level. The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to fade weak short and induce longs, then reverse downward to remove weak longs, then reverse again upward in a push to test 1.3555 and higher. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to test  1.3500 - 1.3520  and may or may not reverse back to Asia low depending on how H1 closes as a guide. If the level is a clear stop hunt, it may mean a break lower to the 38.2%Fib at 1.3335. The Asia range is not updated after the UK news mentioned below.

EU long levels:   1.3470, 1.3460, 1.3382, 1.3348, 1.3330  EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3520, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (97pips) bear closing about ½ off the low on below-average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests that SM bought into the candle. Broker platforms continue to show that traders are still net-short and one even notes that “The trading crowd is further short since last week”. As I was writing, UK’s George Carney was quoted by the Yorkshire Post that he “sees no need for further QE” and GU Asia range is now about 100pipsn and price has already embraced the 1.6100 level. SM will test supply at 1.6167 and if we have a H1 close above, look to short on stop run at the next supply levels. There is literally no demand level from which to consider a long unless we see a short term pullback but that will be too risky.

GU long levels: none  GU short levels:  1.6022, 1.6071, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

Update 4.40am EST: The GU herd traders are being faded by SM, possible long level setups: 1.6037, 1.6025, 1.6009 - 1.6000