DAILY REVIEW 30 Aug 2013

EU: The Daily candle is an above-average spread bear closing slightly off the low on average vol>4days. Price closed above the 50% fib 1.3227 but the volume and close suggests more downside, this is also supported by the risk-averse sentiment created by the Syrian crisis and should see the safe-haven currencies of USD, JPY continue to strengthen. Having said that, we must be mindful that today is the last trading day of the month and month-end flows can whipsaw, especially on a Friday. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing downward. 

EU long levels:   1.3220, 1.3200, 1.3175  EU short levels:  1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3340, 1.3371, 1.3400

GU: The Daily candle is an above narrow spread (66pips) bear spinning top closing on below-average vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and a probable retest of the daily ema200 at 1.5538 and higher. We may even see a higher push, perhaps to even retest the daily supply levels, as the UK will not be likely to be combative participants in the Syrian conflict. However, if a conflict begins, it will still fall as the USD strengthens which is very likely. Having held prices in a tight range yesterday, SM is likely to create buying pressure and fade the weak shorts as it retests the ema200, and reverse back down in anticipation of military action over the weekend. 

GU long levels: 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5540, 1.5555, 1.5570, 1.5595, 1.5628, 1.5687, 1.5711

DAILY REVIEW 29 Aug 2013

The review is a bit late today as I was busy.

EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread bear closing 1/3 off the low on near-average vol<1day. Technicals: 50% fib 1.3227 confluence with trendline and 13 Aug 2013 low 1.3232 The SM has started marching to the beat of the war drums with the Syrian crisis as the safe-haven currencies of USD, JPY strengthen. We are likely seeing the full blown reversal with no further retest of the 1.3450 level unless 1.3227 holds. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.3227 before reversing.

EU long levels:   1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3175  EU short levels:  1.3300, 1.3340, 1.33371, 1.3400

GU: The Daily candle is a above average spread (125pips) pin bar bear closing about ¾ off the low on average vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests SM buying as price tested the recent daily demand level  at 1.5445 – 1.5420 Note that price failed to close above the daily ema200 at 1.5538 This is significant as many traders watch a close above this level as a possible change in trend. The long tail is likely to be SM fading weak shorts instead of a reversal owing to the current sentiment. SM uses both news and sentiment to move price. Having moved downward so far today, a possible area for SM to reverse and create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing back down would be around the 1.5500 – 1.5480 area.

GU long levels: 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5555, 1.5570, 1.5595, 1.5628