DAILY REVIEW 8 June 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (276pips) bull closing at the high on high vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a small spread (41pips) doji closing on low vol<5days. The candle close and volume suggests possible upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US NFP data missed expectations by more than a mile and consequent US Dollar weakness followed. It would seem to have put to bed the FED hawks that have been baying for a rate hike or more. Like the tall grass that grow on the plains, FED's Bainard now says that "there may be benefits on holding off on hiking..." What a difference a day can make.....

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes dominate.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.1317-1.1295

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1385-1.1400

US Crude oil inventories may be the catalyst later.  SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.1380 or higher before reversing to around the 1.1300 key level.

EU long levels:  1.1300, 1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1275, 1.1291, 1.1311, 1.1345, 1.1386, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (338pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>70weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of buying.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (225pips) bull closing 1/2 below the high on low vol<5day. The candle close suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Take notice of newly profitable longs. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops: not applicable

Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

You can watch my video analysis here.

We have high impact UK news today. SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.4659 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.4425, 1.4400, 1.4385-1.4370, 1.4335-1.4330

GU short levels: 1.4660, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4800-1.4820 

Posted at 02.23 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 7 June 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (276pips) bull closing at the high on high vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (67pips) doji closing on high vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests buying.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US NFP data missed expectations by more than a mile and consequent US Dollar weakness followed. It would seem to have put to bed the FED hawks that have been baying for a rate hike or more. Like the tall grass that grow on the plains, FED's Bainard now says that "there may be benefits on holding off on hiking..." What a difference a day can make.....

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes dominate.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.1317-1.1295

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1390-1.1400

No high impact releases today. SM is likely to retest 1.1372 or higher before reversing to around the 1.1300 key level.

EU long levels:  1.1300, 1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1275, 1.1291, 1.1311, 1.1345, 1.1386, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (338pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>70weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of buying.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (129pips) bear "spring" closing on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: More new trapped longs with old trapped longs more significant. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops: 1.4429-1.4420, 1.4350-1.4328, 1.4293-1.4286

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4543-1.4555

Price popped more than 160pips spiking up to 1.5659 on yet another survey result earlier today and quickly retraced. This pair continues to be plagued by Brexit concerns and except for clear levels, it is better to stay clear. There is only medium impact news today. SM is likely to retest the 1.4580 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.4335-1.4330

GU short levels: 1.4580, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800-1.4820 

Posted at 02.56 am EST