DAILY REVIEW 2 Oct 2013

EU: Perspective: Monthly candle is a normal spread (463pips) solid bull closing just off the high on very low vol <28months, this is at a supply level and deemed “no demand”. However the candle close on the monthly suggests more upside from the month high of 1.3567. The Daily candle is a below-average spread (71pips) pin bar doji closing on above-average vol>8days on bearish volume divergence. Price had broken out of the TR high 1.3567 and tested the weekly/daily supply levels upto 1.3587. The candle close and volume suggests more downside and on the basis of where price tested and fell without any retest suggests supply and not mere manipulation, in order for SM to push through this level, they will need to re-accumulate orders thus they will likely have to retrace downward to do so, at the moment it is unlikely to become a full blown reversal when we look at the monthly perspective. The Asian range is 1.3506 – 1.3528 The likely SM move will be to take stops at Asia lows to create selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing to test 1.3545. and possibly reversing back down.  

EU long levels:  1.3500, 1.3470, 1.3460  EU short levels:  1.3545, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3583, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (78pips) bull pin bar closing on high vol>8days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more selling. The Asian range is 1.6161 – 1.6199 Perspective is that the Monthly candle is a normal spread bull closing at the high on vol<8 months. This would indicate possible continued upside. As I write, SM has broken the Asia highs and price looks to be moving upward to perhaps test the supply yesterday before reversing downward.   

GU long levels:  1.6158, 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6259, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 1 Oct 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (79pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>4days. The candle close suggests more downside but the increasing volume and price position suggests accumulation. The candle is an “Inside day” candle and price is within the Trading Range (TR) 1.3461 - 1.3567. Short positions have increased on brokers’ platforms.  Price has moved early in Asia and the Asian range is 1.3516 – 1.3551 The likely SM move will be to reverse to create selling pressure to induce shorts before reversing to test 1.35567. Thinking aloud, there is no reason why SM could not have taken out the 1.3567 level, why stop short even of the 1.3555 level yesterday? Unless it is to convince the shorts to re-enter the fray for them to stock up a bit more inventory as they reverse and take them out.  EU long levels:  1.3517, 1.3500, 1.3470, 1.3460  EU short levels: 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (74pips) bull closing just off the high on high vol>6days with bearish volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Short positions continue to build up on brokers’ platforms and price has broken yesterday’s high with the Asian range now 1.6181 – 1.6245 SM has made new highs and there is bearish volume divergence on H1 , SM is likely to reverse to create selling pressure, inducing shorts before reversing to resume the upward move.  
GU long levels:  1.6181, 1.6158, 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025 GU short levels: 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380