DAILY REVIEW 30 Sep 2013
EU: Weekly – the candle is a small spread (102pips) bear hammer closing on low volume <1day. The candle close and spread normally no selling pressure. The Daily candle is a normal spread (90pips) bull closing ½ off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside but price is still within the Trading Range (TR) clearly seen on a H4 chart bounded by the retracement low 1.3461 (25 Sep) 23.6% Fib and the current high 1.3567. Broker platforms also indicated increase in their short positions.  A H1 break and close below this level will likely see prices push lower in which case I will look to short on the retest of the breakout. Conversely, a H1 break and close above the 1.3567 will also likely result in price going upward to the next supply level. Price opened with a gap down in the wake of the Italian crisis and has not been closed yet. The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to appear to close the gap, move above the gap to fade weak short gap traders then reverse downward to remove weak longs, then reverse again upward in a push to test last week’s high and higher. As I mentioned last week, a H1 close above/below the TR high/low will likely determined the direction of the larger move. 
EU long levels:   1.3470, 1.3460, 1.3382, 1.3348, 1.3330  EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3520, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: Weekly - the candle is a below average spread (191pips) bull closing just off the high on low volume <37 weeks. The close is just below last week’s high back at the weekly supply level. Technicals: 88.6Fib @ 1.6203 Daily supply 1.6165 – 1.6177, 1.6229 – 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6350 – 1.6380, 1.6353 (HVC),  H4 Fib Ext 161.8% @ 1.6290 The Daily candle is a normal spread (117pips) bull closing just off the high on below-average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Broker platforms continue to show traders increasing short positions. Asia range is now 1.6137 – 1.6180 which is holding well above last week’s high and well within range of the monthly supply levels at 1.6350- 1.6380. As SM has already made new highs and there is bearish volume divergence on H1/H4 , the likely SM play will be to reverse to create selling pressure, inducing more weak shorts and filling the small gap up created at market open and possibly lower before reversing to resume the upward move.  
GU long levels: 1.6111 - 1.6105, 1.6037, 1.6025, 1.6009 - 1.6000 GU short levels:  1.6170 – 1.6180, 1.6200, 1.6229, 1.6255, 1.6320, 1.6353, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 27 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (59pips) bull closing off the low on low vol>1days. Broker platforms continue short positions still dominant but one broker states that “The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week”. The candle close and volume suggests SM buying into the candle. As I write, the Asian range so far is 1.3473 – 1.3490 SM has created selling pressure early in Asia to test yesterday’s lows and as I write, is now reversing to test Asia high. The retracement low 1.3461 (25 Sep) on the current daily swing is also the 23.6% Fib and together with the current high 1.3567 form the Trading Range (TR) clearly seen on a H4 chart. A H1 break and close below this level will likely see prices push lower in which case I will look to short on the retest of the breakout. Conversely, a H1 break and close above the 1.3567 will also likely result in price going upward to the next supply level. The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to fade weak short and induce longs, then reverse downward to remove weak longs, then reverse again upward in a push to test 1.3555 and higher. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to test  1.3500 - 1.3520  and may or may not reverse back to Asia low depending on how H1 closes as a guide. If the level is a clear stop hunt, it may mean a break lower to the 38.2%Fib at 1.3335. The Asia range is not updated after the UK news mentioned below.

EU long levels:   1.3470, 1.3460, 1.3382, 1.3348, 1.3330  EU short levels:  1.3500, 1.3520, 1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (97pips) bear closing about ½ off the low on below-average vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests that SM bought into the candle. Broker platforms continue to show that traders are still net-short and one even notes that “The trading crowd is further short since last week”. As I was writing, UK’s George Carney was quoted by the Yorkshire Post that he “sees no need for further QE” and GU Asia range is now about 100pipsn and price has already embraced the 1.6100 level. SM will test supply at 1.6167 and if we have a H1 close above, look to short on stop run at the next supply levels. There is literally no demand level from which to consider a long unless we see a short term pullback but that will be too risky.

GU long levels: none  GU short levels:  1.6022, 1.6071, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

Update 4.40am EST: The GU herd traders are being faded by SM, possible long level setups: 1.6037, 1.6025, 1.6009 - 1.6000

DAILY REVIEW 26 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (76pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<5days which indicates no buying pressure. Broker platforms continue much the same with short positions dominant. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume is indicative of a typical SM mark-up, not high so as not to attract attention and to deceive. As I write, the Asian range is 1.3511 – 1.3530, the likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to fade weak short and induce longs, then reverse downward to remove weak longs, then reverse again upward in a push to test 1.3555 and higher.

EU long levels:   1.3490, 1.3450, 1.3382, 1.3348  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (109pips) bull closing near the high on below-average vol<5days which suggests no buying pressure. The candle close suggests more upside and broker platforms continue to show that traders are still net-short. The Asian range is 1.6022 – 1.6085, SM has broken the Asia high to induce breakout traders but is likely to reverse downward and induce more shorts while fading the longs to around 1.6045 or lower before reversing to push up again to test 1.6100 and higher.

GU long levels:  1.6045, 1.6000, 1.5985, 1.5955, 1.5922, 1.5905  GU short levels:  1.6022, 1.6071, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 25 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4days which indicates no selling pressure. Most broker platforms report about 70% traders are net short. As I write, SM has broken out of the Asian range of 1.3461 – 1.3480. The likely SM move will be to maintain buying pressure before they reverse downward to remove weak longs, a H1 close above 1.3492 will likely see price push up again to test the supply levels and we can expect to see price retest this level before going back to test 1.3555 and higher. Failure to break and hold above 1.3480 may see price retest the day low of 1.3461 or even push lower towards 1.3342 to remove weak longs. 
EU long levels:   1.3478, 1.3450, 1.3382, 1.3348  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear closing about 1/2 off the low on below-average vol<4days which suggests no buying pressure. Broker platforms continue to show that traders are still net-short. The Asian range is 1.5978 – 1.6002, SM has tested the Asia high and is likely to maintain buying pressure to fade weak shorts, probably to test the breakout level of 1.6022. A H1 close above this level will likely see price moving back up to retest supply, in which case we can reasonably expect a retest of this same level before price pushes up to the supply. Otherwise, price will probably retest the lows at 1.5954 or even the breakout level 1.5905 before  reversing upwards.
GU long levels:  1.5955, 1.5922, 1.5905  GU short levels:  1.6022, 1.6071, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 24 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (69pips) bear closing near the low on average vol<3days which indicates no selling pressure. A major broker reports that long positions are higher than yesterday although below levels seen last week whereas short positions are slightly lower than yesterday. SM will make the most of the uncertainty in Germany and are likely to maintain the impression of selling pressure as well as take out the new longs (presumably the retail crowd) before they reverse upwards to test the supply levels. From a short-term supply/demand perspective, there is really no valid demand level near current price levels but a H1 close below yesterday’s low may see price go to 1.3451 which is the previous swing high that was broken.

EU long levels:   1.3478, 1.3450, 1.3382  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a near-average spread (80pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on below-average vol<3days which suggests no buying pressure. Broker platforms also show that traders have grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. One major broker reports that long positions are higher than yesterday and also increased above levels seen last week. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs, possibly the late entrants to the market and perhaps even retracing more of the news move from last week before reversing to retest supply.

GU long levels: 1.6015, 1.5985, 1.5977, 1.5922  GU short levels:  1.6071, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 23 Sep 2013

EU: Weekly is a normal spread bull closing of the high on below average vol>6weeks. Price closed above previous supply swing high of 1.3451 with next weekly supply levels at 1.3585 – 1.3600 and 1.3675 – 1.3715 The candle close, volume and position suggested more upside. The Daily candle is a small spread (50pips) narrow-body bear spinning top closing on average vol<2days which indicates no selling pressure. With the German elections completed, price opened with a 23pips gap up which has since been closed. The current trading range from 1.3497 – 1.3567 is probably the re-accumulation range for a further push up. Technicals: daily supply 1.3585- - 1.3600, 1.3675 – 1.3715, 1.3755 – 1.3795, 1.3830 – 1.3858 78.6%Fib @ 1.3504 88.6%Fib @ 1.3600 confluence day highs 5 Feb 2013 (1.3596) and 6 Feb 2013 (1.3595) minor swing (20 Aug 2013 – 6 Sep 2013) 161.8%Fib Ext @ 1.6670 After closing the gap this morning, SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to fade weak longs possibly to around the 1.3500 level then reverse upwards to test 1.3567 which is well within range. If SM requires accumulation of further orders, a probable short term pullback level if they trigger breakout orders at 1.3567 is the 1.3575 level, a monthly open that may well be defended as it will be a first return to this level since 1Feb this year. A close above this level will open 1.3600 as the next possible pullback level. The post-FOMC risk appetite sentiment remains fuelled by the German elections results and with both ECB’s Draghi and the FED’s Bullard due to speak, we can expect SM to whipsaw prices before finally heading north.

EU long levels:   1.3500, 1.3492, 1.3480, 1.3450, 1.3382  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: Weekly is a normal spread (278pips) bull upthrust candle closing on average vol>8weeks. The Daily candle is a near-average spread (80pips) bear closing just off the low on below-average vol<2days which suggests no selling pressure. Price has rejected off the supply level at 1.6162 closing much of the FOMC news move.  Technicals: 88.6Fib @ 1.6203 78.6%Fib @ 1.6048 61.8%Fib @ 1.5894 Daily supply levels: 1.6170 – 1.6180 (confluence with 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184), 1.6360 – 1.6380 SM is likely to fade weak shorts before reversing to around the 1.6000 level and then going back up again. Moves today will likely be influenced by the forthcoming speeches mentioned above so we can expect volatility.

GU long levels: 1.600, 1.5985, 1.5977, 1.5922  GU short levels:  1.6075, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 20 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (67pips) bull spinning top with a longer upside wick closing on ultra high vol<1days which indicates bearish volume divergence. The close and spread would normally suggest a possible reversal  but the price level suggests more upside. This is so particularly as the current daily supply level at 1.3575 – 1.3600 are possible stop hunt levels for SM to start fading weak longs either for inventory re-stock or a corrective pullback before a further push up to the next daily supply levels. Of note is the 1.3575 level which is a monthly open, it is a level that may well be defended as it will be a first return to this level since 1Feb this year. Current Asia high is 1.3538 and low is 1.3527, SM will likely create buying pressure to induce longs, reverse to fade them and reverse again to test the daily supply levels. Basically SM was fading weak longs yesterday and making a re-accumulation before a further move up. We have the German elections this weekend which throws open the possibility of gap ups/downs when market reopens so it will be dicey to hold open trades. Price may also not move much because of this.

EU long levels:   1.3500, 1.3492, 1.3480, 1.3450, 1.3382  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715

GU: The Daily candle is a above-average spread (127pips) bear closing just off the low on very high vol>24days. The candle close and volume suggest more downside. Price had pushed up to 1.6162 on FOMC news to test the daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180 (confluence with 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184) which is significant and if price retests and fails, we may have a full blown reversal. Breaking through today is unlikely given no significant UK news. The next supply level at 1.6360 – 1.6380 could still come into play depending on the outcome of the German elections. SM is likely to fade weak shorts before reversing to around the 1.6000 level pending the weekend results.

GU long levels: 1.6021, 1.5977  GU short levels:  1.6075, 1.6105, 1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200

DAILY REVIEW 19 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (204pips) bull closing just off the high on ultra high vol>14days. The close and volume suggests more upside. As I write, the current  Asia low is at 1.3501 and Asia high is at 1.3545 The current daily supply level at 1.3575 – 1.3600 are unlikely to hold but may serve as stophunt levels for SM to start fading weak longs for inventory re-stock before a further push up. SM is has broken Asia high to fade weak shorts and will likely reverse to fade the weak longs before reversing to test the daily supply levels.
EU long levels:   1.3500, 1.3492, 1.3480, 1.3450, 1.3382  EU short levels:  1.3555, 1.3575, 1.3600, 1.3655, 1.3700, 1.3715


GU: The Daily candle is a very large spread (271pips) bull closing just off the high on very high vol>23days. The candle close and volume suggest more upside to test the daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180 (confluence with 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184) and if it breaks through, the next level at 1.6360 – 1.6380 Price is currently still within the Asia range from 1.6114 – 1.6148 SM is likely to stop hunt Asia high or yesterday’s high before reversing to fade the weak longs with selling pressure, then reverse and continue upward. 
GU long levels: 1.6100, 1.6082, 1.6038, 1.5977  GU short levels:  1.6148, 1.6162, 1.6175, 1.6200, 1.6355, 1.6380

DAILY REVIEW 18 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bull wide-body spinning top closing off the high on below average vol<4days which suggests no buying pressure. Background is that the gap from Monday is not closed. Volume had increased significantly and then dropped off yesterday. The close suggests more downside although price is within the supply level and signs of weakness have started surfacing, we have yet to see significant climatic volume on H4 and a retest of the supply highs can reasonably be expected. SM has been accumulating in this tight range for the past two days, probably accumulating for a test of the high’s or to 1.3450 in view of the impending FOMC minutes to be released later today. As I write, the current  Asia high is at 1.3363 which is still below the two previous NY session lows the higher of which is about 1.3384 Although these are possible short term pullback levels for SM to reverse to gather more shorts before reversing upwards, a further larger drop may be possible evolving into a reversal depending on the extent or non-existence of the  expected FOMC tapering. I would expect SM to position prices close to one of the supply levels prior to the FOMC announcement. SM is likely to test Asia low or lower to fade weak longs before reversing to supply levels pre-FOMC.
EU long levels:   1.3337, 1.3325, 1.3300, 1.3265, 1.3255  EU short levels:  1.3384, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451, 1.3498, 1.3508, 1.3525


GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (52pips) bull inverted hammer closing on vol>1days.We note that the gap up is not closed. The daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180 and also 1.6360 – 1.6380 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184 is well within reach. SM has broken Asia high and maintained buying pressure to fade weak shorts and the first possible reversal level at 1.5935 to reverse start inducing shorts to accumulate before the push back up from 1.5900 or Asia low. SM may also take stops above the 1.6000 key level as it is almost a certain stop-hunt location for the fading of weak longs before a further push up and this can happen with manipulation of the EG cross pair. 
GU long levels: 1.5900, 1.5887, 1.5860, 1.5825  GU short levels:  1.6000, 1.6015, 1.6088, 1.6110, 1.6175

DAILY REVIEW 17 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bear inverted hammer closing just off the low on high vol>5days. The gap up yesterday that tested the daily supply levels toward 1.3400 is not closed. Volume has increased significantly and although the close suggests more downside, such volume activity should have seen even a much larger spread. This suggests that after having gapped through the trading range top at 1.3325, there is no reason yet for SM to close the gap. As I write, SM has begun to stall and move prices back upwards. Current Asia high is still below yesterday’s NY session low (breakout) about 1.3252 and this is a possible short term test level for SM to reverse to gather more shorts before reversing upwards to continue the buying pressure  to fade weak shorts probably by taking price to 28Aug high at 1.3397 and maybe break above to take breakout traders’ orders around the 1.3400 key level before reversing to bow to the impending expected FOMC tapering. With the FOMC later this week, I would expect SM to push further up before the anticipated QE “tapering” news possibly when prices are at or close to the supply levels. 
EU long levels:   1.3325, 1.3300, 1.3265, 1.3255  EU short levels:  1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451, 1.3498, 1.3508, 1.3525


GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (68pips) bear with a pin toward the high but closing about just off the low on vol<3days with continuing bearish volume divergence. The gap up yesterday was not closed. SM looks to have absorbed the supply and reversed upward at the 161.8% Fib Ext @ 1.5895 which opens up the daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180 and also 1.6360 – 1.6380 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184 SM has created buying pressure to fade weak shorts and the first possible reversal level at 1.5930 to reverse start inducing shorts to accumulate before the push back up from Asia low. SM may take stops above the 1.6000 key level as it is almost a certain stop-hunt location for the fading of weak longs before a further push up. 
GU long levels: 1.5887, 1.5860, 1.5825  GU short levels:  1.5930, 1.6000, 1.6015, 1.6088, 1.6110, 1.6175

DAILY REVIEW 16 Sep 2013

EU: The weekly candle is a below-average spread bull closing slightly off the high on vol <36 weeks. Price has closed at the weekly ema200 @ 1.3292 Technicals: Daily (1Feb – 27Mar) 78.6%Fib @ 1.3505 88.6%Fib @ 1.3600 Current Daily supply levels: 1.3425 – 1.3450 Next Daily supply levels: 1.3512 – 1.3527, 1.3620 – 1.3636, 1.3703 – 1.3711  The Daily candle is a below-average spread (68pips) bear candle with wicks to the top and a slightly longer bottom wick on high vol>4days. The price action was an “inside day” of Thursday’s and Wednesday’s candle. The candle close suggests that there is no selling interest and the volume suggests that SM has bought into the upmove at the end of last Friday after sweeping almost the whole trading range of last Thursday. This kind of price action on bear candles would normally suggest a build up of selling pressure but the price action and candle close the past two days suggest accumulation instead. Confirming this, price opened with a gap up of 59pips. SM is likely to continue the buying pressure  to suck in more shorts probably by taking price to 28Aug high at 1.3397 or even break above to take breakout traders’ orders around the 1.3400 key level before reversing to selling pressure to fade the weak longs and spike the Asia low (today’s open) before reversing back up. Closing the gap is a possibility but will depend on the news. We may see this move as ECB’s Draghi is speaking today during London session. With the FOMC later this week, I would expect SM to push further up before the anticipated QE “tapering” news possibly when prices are at or close to the supply levels.

EU long levels:   1.3350, 1.3265, 1.3255  EU short levels:  1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451, 1.3498, 1.3508, 1.3525

GU: Weekly: The candle is a normal spread (271pips) bull candle closing nearly at the high on below average vol >2days with bearish volume divergence. The Daily candle is a normal spread (108pips) bull closing just off the high on vol<2days with continuing bearish volume divergence. With the length of the candle and candle close, higher prices can be expected in spite of the bearish volume divergence. Technicals: Daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180, 1.6360 – 1.6380 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184

Price also gapped up 59pips and with the next significant supply level at around 1.6150 and higher, I expect SM to take stops above the 1.6000 key level as it is almost a certain stop-hunt location for the fading of weak longs before a push back up. It will also be an excellent level from which to create a herd sell-off to close the gap before the next push up.

GU long levels: 1.5926, 1.5860, 1.5825  GU short levels:  1.6000, 1.6015, 1.6088, 1.6110, 1.6175

DAILY REVIEW 13 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (70pips) bear hammer on high vol>3days. The price action was an “inside day” of Wednesday’s candle. SM used the good US News to spike lower to take stops all the way to 1.3254 before reversing to spike the high and now reversing back downwards to move back in direction of the news fading a lot of retracement long traders. It is a typical SM vacuum cleaning move which paves the way for them to do a quick mark-up later. The candle pattern suggests a reversal but price is still in no man’s land close enough to the supply levels above. The close indicates more up is possible and the volume suggests that SM has been buying. The down move since the high has been on low volume, typical of a SM mark-down as they re-stock inventory for the push back up. SM is likely to continue the selling pressure continuing to fade the weak longs before reversing back up. The main Euro and US news later will determine the extent of the moves.

EU long levels:   1.3265, 1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3211-20, 1.3200  EU short levels:  1.3323, 1.3338, 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451

GU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (64pips) bear spinning top closing on vol>3days with continuing bearish volume divergence. The candle pattern suggests a reversal is in order but with the supply levels already reached and the expected push up by EU, it is a possibility that SM will push up to 1.5880 or even the 1.5900 level. However, with price at the current daily supply level, I would look for a stoprun to yesterday’s high or clear H4 bearish volume divergence to consider a short setup/entry. The current SM selling pressure in fading the weak longs is underway and they will likely test yesterday’s low or even lower before reversing upwards. Background from yesterday is good UK news/data for SM to spike up during the London session only to perform the same vacuum cleaning process as the EU. So there is every reason to anticipate further upside at this juncture although being Friday, we will need to be very careful as SM closes out the week, they will want to book some profits and there may be similar whiplash moves. A close above 1.5825 will open the next imbalance/breakout level at 1.6000

GU long levels: 1.5770, 1.5745, 1.5720, 1.5700, 1.5680, 1.5665, 1.5640  GU short levels:  1.5838, 1.5920, 1.5950, 1.6000

DAILY REVIEW 12 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (80pips) bull off the high on below average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside as price pushes towards the supply levels. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around 1.3280 to fade the weak longs before making a u-turn back up. The slew of Eurozone news will determine the extent of the moves.

EU long levels:   1.3280, 1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3211-20, 1.3200  EU short levels:  1.3323, 1.3338, 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (110pips) bull closing near the high on vol>1day with continued bearish volume divergence. The close suggests more upside but the volume suggest no demand, however, with the range of the candle, we can expect more upside. Price is at the current daily supply but a further push to 1.5880 cannot be ruled out.  In this scenario, SM will probably fade the weak longs by creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. There is also bearish volume divergence on the H4 that has yet to be played out and if there is a drop from current levels, it may be a significant move.

GU long levels: 1.5700, 1.5680, 1.5665, 1.5640  GU short levels:  1.5820, 1.5920, 1.5950, 1.6000

DAILY REVIEW 11 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (46pips) bull hammer closing just off the high on low vol>1day. This candle pattern at supply levels would indicate a possible reversal but in the current context, the close and volume suggests no buying interest. As I write, price has broken yesterday’s high and looks like retracing down. The background context is that price has taken out the entire range of last week plus the weekly candle also had no selling interest. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around 1.3250 or perhaps around yesterday’s low which has confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3240 before reversing back up. News will also determine how far the drop goes given the ongoing Syrian crisis.

EU long levels:   1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3211-20, 1.3200  EU short levels:  1.3311, 1.3338, 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (59pips) wide-body small wick bull spinning top closing on low vol<3days with bearish volume divergence. The close suggests more upside but the volume suggest no demand. There are two possibilities now: Price is at a current daily supply level so any move down may be fairly substantial as there has been little retracement. However, price is still within reach of the next supply level 1.5800 – 1.5820 so a further push there cannot be ruled out.  SM will probably fade the weak longs by creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. However, an hourly close below yesterday’s low will see it test 1.5650 or lower.

GU long levels: 1.5700, 1.5680, 1.5665, 1.5640  GU short levels:  1.5731, 1.5750, 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5820

DAILY REVIEW 10 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (119pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<2days. Technicals: 23.6% Fib @ 1.3290 (price may bounce here a little as some Fib traders TP and some go long on the break upwards) 1.3311 breakout level confluence with 1.3300 key level. Previous day highs 1.3338, key level 1.3400 Although volume suggests no buying interest, the close suggests more upside. Price has taken out the entire range of last week, then broken and closed above the 1.3254 30 Aug high level in spite of the background. The weekly candle also had no selling interest. Now that the smoke is cleared, SM is likely to make another push to the upside. The background situation of QE taper and Syria remains so it will be good to be mindful of it when price reaches supply/manipulation levels. As I am writing, price is close to yesterday’s high, SM is likely to test, spike the high and create selling pressure to at least Asia low to remove weak longs, probably even to short term demand at 1.3211 – 1.3220 level confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3211 before reversing back up. 
EU long levels:   1.3250, 1.3211-20, 1.3200  EU short levels:  1.3311, 1.3338, 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451


GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (119pips) bull closing 1/4 off the high on low vol<2days with bearish volume divergence. The close and vol suggest no demand but the spread is too large for a no demand here, it is likely to retest the 1.5780 and potentially also the daily supply level @ 1.5800 – 1.5820 Price is close enough to large orders at the next supply levels but we are already at a current daily supply level and we have daily bearish volume divergence so I'll be looking for a short setup as well.  As of now, SM will be likely to fade the weak longs by creating selling pressure before reversing upwards.  
GU long levels: 1.5680, 1.5665, 1.5640  GU short levels:  1.5731, 1.5750, 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5820

DAILY REVIEW 9 Sep 2013
EU: Weekly: The candle is a small-spread (122pips) bear hammer closing on low volume >1week. The Daily candle is a normal spread (84pips) bull closing just off the high on above-average vol<14ay with daily bullish volume divergence. The weekly close and volume suggests no selling interest. Technicals: 30 Aug 2013 high@1.3254 confluence with backside of trendline. Daily 38.2%Fib@1.3187 confluence with 3 Sep 2013 high@1.3196 and key level@1.3200 Daily ema200 @1.3059 (confluence demand previous retest @ 1.3060) (also test of demand at intermediate spring 1.2990 – 1.3108). Broker platforms show that shorts have increase slightly again. With the NFP results missing expectations, prices pushed up as expected. However, the reality is that the expected military action against Syria is still looming and US QE tapering is still very much alive, at least discussion-wise so overall sentiment will still favor safe-haven currencies. Price is also in “no man’s land” this is again likely to push it to demand levels which is nearer rather than supply levels above. The close and volume of the daily candle suggests more upside. The market opened with a 20pips gap down but has since closed, and with price bouncing up from the daily 50% Fib, many Fib traders are going to believe it is a valid long trade. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak shorts before reversing back down to take out Friday’s lows.
EU long levels:   1.3100, 1.3090, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2962, 1.2870  EU short levels:  1.3200, 1.3217, 1.3258


GU: Weekly: The candle is a small spread (175pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol<34weeks. The Daily candle is a normal spread (119pips) bull closing 2/3 off the high on below-average vol>1day with bearish volume divergence. The weekly candle close and volume suggest no demand, however price is close enough to the weekly supply level 1.5725 – 1.5750 to test. Technicals: Supply levels at 1.5725 – 1.5750, 68.1%Fib@1.5780 potential daily supply level @ 1.5800 – 1.5820 Broker platforms do indicate a higher percentage of traders short than the EU. The daily close and volume suggests no buying interest. With price close enough to large orders at supply levels, SM will be likely to fade the weak shorts by creating buying pressure before reversing downwards. 
GU long levels: 1.5570, 1.5525, 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5665, 1.5687, 1.5711, 1.5720, 1.5750, 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5820

DAILY REVIEW 6 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (113pips) bear closing just off the low on above-average vol>14days. Price has stalled at the daily 50% Fib close to the 1.3100 key level. The close and volume suggests more downside. Technicals: 30 Aug 2013 high@1.3254 confluence with backside of trendline test.  Daily 38.2%Fib@1.3187 confluence with 3 Sep 2013 high@1.3196 and key level@1.3200 Daily Breakout test at 1.3169 – 1.3156 Daily ema200@1.3057 (also test of demand at intermediate spring 1.2990 – 1.3108). Broker platforms show that shorts have reduced and longs have increased. The relatively positive US news coupled with Draghi’s comments that they had met to discuss cutting interest rates plus the Syrian crisis still looming in the background lends strength to the USD and also promotes a risk-averse sentiment that is confirmed by price action and volume. I would expect that weak shorts have been taken out of the market by the upmove yesterday prior to the move down. As NFP looms large today, I expect that good US news will likely see immediate strength in the USD. However, poor data may result in SM pushing prices up to near supply levels before reversing downward to follow sentiment. SM is likely to create buying pressure to fade the weak longs prior to the news. Many traders will expect an immediate short but I believe that SM may whip it up at release and then reverse. It will be really strange if yesterday’s low is not broken.

EU long levels:   1.3100, 1.3090, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2962, 1.2870  EU short levels:  1.3555 (DPP), 1.3169, 1.3200, 1.3217, 1.3258

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (106pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest and buying, therefore more possible upside. Technicals: 68.1%Fib@1.5780 potential daily supply level @ 1.5800 – 1.5820 Yesterday, I warned that GU testing the supply levels beyond 1.5700 is still possible but to be careful of manipulation as EG reaches the demand level of 0.8400 – 0.8390 and what could happen if there is no real USD weakness.  If there is USD strength, the buying of USD will also cause the GU to lose ground and even more so when if EU starts to fall with USD strength as the largest volumes are there. This being said, there will be a real opportunity to short GU at the daily supply levels 1.5720-50 or even up the next level at 1.5800- 1.5820 depending on the news. Broker platforms do indicate a higher percentage of traders short. The likely SM move will be to fade the weak shorts by creating buying pressure before reversing downwards prior to the NFP. Finally, today is Friday and so we can expect whipsaws with NFP.

GU long levels: 1.5573, 1.5525, 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5665, 1.5687, 1.5711, 1.5720, 1.5750, 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5820

DAILY REVIEW 5 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (61pips) bull closing just off the high on below-average vol<1day. The close suggests more upside but the volume indicates a likely move down before that happens. Broker platforms continue to show that longs have increased so there will be a fading of weak longs before SM reverses. With the Syrian crisis in the background and NFP later today, SM may want to book in profits by taking out the majority of trapped shorts before the push down once military action commences thus we will likely see EU pre-positioned lower but not exceeding the week’s low (as SM will not want to release too many of the trapped short traders) for a possible move in the opposite direction. My guess is those that are trapped short may believe that it will be a full-blown risk-aversion and hold on instead of getting out (Oanda platform shows some short positions even below 1.2800). SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs and reverse upwards either prior-to (to lure more shorts) or with the NFP release due tomorrow.

EU long levels:   1.3170, 1.3156, 1.3138, 1.3100. 1.3061  EU short levels:  1.3217, 1.3258, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3340, 1.3371

GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (93pips) bull closing just off the high on below-average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but the likely SM move will be to create selling pressure to remove weak longs possibly to the 1.5580 level or even lower and then reverse up again. This may even see GU testing the supply levels beyond 1.5700 so we will have to be careful of manipulation as EG reaches the demand level of 0.8400 and if there is no real USD weakness, SM may push EU, EG and cause GU to drop like a stone. Broker platforms still show a net short position so we know SM will usually go where the majority of stops are located with the least resistance as long as the news enables them to do so. 

GU long levels: 1.5580, 1.5525, 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5650, 1.5687, 1.5711, 1.5720, 1.5750

DAILY REVIEW 4 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (59pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on below-average vol>1day. Price spiked lower on very good US ISM data and stopped just short of the 22 Jul 2013 open before SM faded the herd. The close and volume normally indicate SM buying but price is still within striking distance of the key level 1.3100 level and even the 1.3061 demand/breakout level. The likelihood is a test for supply at yesterday’s low at 1.3137 but an hourly close below it will likely see it push down, this is a significant level as it is also a week low so a push below it is likely to continue. Broker platforms show that net short positions have decreased which suggests that longs have increased so there will be a fading of weak longs before SM reverses. Combine this with the news that President Obama has obtained approval for a limited strike on Syria, this suggests that we will likely see sentiment supporting the move down. SM is likely to create buying pressure during Asia before reversing to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs and reverse upwards, where the reversal will happen depends on where we see price-volume setups/stop runs. With NFP tomorrow, there is a possibility to see price being-positioned today.

EU long levels:   1.3138, 1.3100. 1.3061  EU short levels:  1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300

GU: Same as yesterday, the Daily candle is near-normal spread (81pips) bull spinning top (with a longer up wick) closing on below-average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying interest but the Gap up opening on Monday is still valid and a further push upward is expected. The likely SM move will be to create buying pressure to remove weak shorts possibly to the 1.5605 level or a bit more and then selling pressure to fade the weak longs and then reverse up again. This is a bit tricky as EG reaches the demand level. SM may actually push EU up and GU down so it is best to be really careful.

GU long levels: 1.5525, 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5582, 1.5605, 1.5628, 1.5687, 1.5711

DAILY REVIEW 3 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (43pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on low vol<4days. The volume suggests no supply and the close does suggest price going a bit lower. Nothing has changed since yesterday and a H1 close below 1.3172 would likely see price test the 1.3100 level and maybe also the 1.3061 demand/breakout level. Price holding at the lows with bullish volume divergence in H1/H4 or a stophunt of the 1.3172 level will be the long setup. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards.

EU long levels:   1.3175, 1.3150, 1.3100. 1.3061  EU short levels:  1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3340, 1.3371, 1.3400

GU: The Daily candle is normal spread (88pips) bull spinning top (with a longer up wick) closing on below-average vol<4days. Although the candle close and volume suggests no buying interest, the background is that yesterday price opened with a 39pip gap up and price closed above the daily ema200@1.5487 yesterday. The likely SM move will be to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs and then reverse.

GU long levels: 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5628, 1.5687, 1.5711, 1.5720, 1.5750

DAILY REVIEW 2 Sep 2013

EU: Monthly candle is a small-spread (279pips) bear upthrust closing on vol<7months. Apart from price being rejected off the technical monthly down-trend line at about 1.3350 price did not reach any significant level and the volume suggests no selling pressure. However, the close does suggest some downside. Weekly candle is a small-spread (226pips)bear closing 48pips off the lows on very low vol<34weeks. Price has actually taken out the supply level swing high at 1.3415 before retracing. The volume suggests no selling pressure but the close does suggest at least a test of last week’s low. Technicals:  trendline resistance at 1.3285 confluence with 23.6% Fib@1.3289, 50% Fib@1.3101 daily ema200@1.3058 The Daily candle is a below-average spread (82pips) bear closing 2/3 off the low on average vol<3days with daily bullish volume divergence. The volume suggests no selling pressure and the close does suggest SM fading of weak short positions. The risk-averse sentiment created by the Syrian crisis is still in play so although a retest of at least the trendline resistance is likely, news may give SM the fuel to take more stops below last week’s low. A close below last week’s low of 1.3172 would likely see a test of the 1.3100 level and maybe also the 1.3061 demand/breakout level. However, price stalling at the lows with bullish volume divergence in H1/H4 with a setup may provide a long trade especially if during NY. Price opened with a 11 pips gap down and has remained in a tight range. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs before reversing upwards.

EU long levels:   1.3175, 1.3150, 1.3100. 1.3061  EU short levels:  1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3340, 1.3371, 1.3400

GU: The monthly candle is a below-average spread (614pips) bull candle closing 1/3 off the high on vol<5months. Price is neither near monthly supply nor demand levels. The weekly candle is a small-spread (184pips) bear spinning top closing on vol<15weeks after a test of the weekly supply level. Technicals: daily ema200@1.5487 38.2% Fib@1.5420 daily supply levels: 1.5720 – 1.5750 The Daily candle is below-average spread (66pips) bear spinning top closing on below-average vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling interest after the test of the 1.5420 level and a probable push back upwards. Price opened with a 39pip gap up, the gap through the trading range on the left is usually for SM to mark price quickly and cheaply so that traders trapped long will hold their positions and not keep covering to get out, which makes it pricey for SM to keep going. The likely SM move will be to create selling pressure to fade the weak longs and then reverse.

GU long levels: 1.5516, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5628, 1.5687, 1.5711, 1.5720, 1.5750